There are sometimes disputes about where on the curve any individual innovation might rest, but there have been few challenges to the general trends it outlines.” Lee Rainie, the director of Internet, Science and Technology research at the Pew Research Center had this assessment of Gartner’s observations about the ups and downs of emerging technologies: “Even though the hype cycle is not specifically based on data, the judgment of Gartner analysts about the state of technology adoption often tracks with opinions of other elite observers. The increasing availability of data and the growing sophistication of its analysis are behind the rapid ascendance of some of the trends identified by the Hype Cycle. The IT/OT convergence, according to Gartner, is the growing use of standard IT technologies in OT vendors' products, and IT/OT alignment is the organizational response to these changes. Another example is the convergence of IT with Operational Technology (OT) which moved nine positions. For example, the delivery of analytics capabilities and tools as a service, what Gartner calls business analytics PaaS (baPaaS), moved up 12 positions.
Together with Analytics and Mobile Infrastructure, The Internet of Things was also one of the drivers behind the fast movers from innovation triggers (the first stage of the Hype Cycle) towards the peak of inflated expectations. In its Hype Cycle Special Report Gartner says that “While interest in big data remains undiminished, it has moved beyond the peak because the market has settled into a reasonable set of approaches, and the new technologies and practices are additive to existing solutions.” This statement seems to be a bit premature and the somewhat contradictory assessment of 5 to 10 years to maturity may indicate that Gartner is not entirely confident that the market has indeed “settled.” It’s more a discipline for dealing with big data then a specific technology or set of technologies, so it’s interesting to note that big data is still considered by Gartner to be 5 to 10 years away from reaching that stage. The Internet of Things, says Gartner, “is becoming a vibrant part of our, our customers' and our partners' business and IT landscape.”Ī new entry to the Hype Cycle this year is “data science,” projected to reach the plateau in 2 to 5 years. In 2012 and in 2013 Gartner’s analysts thought that the Internet of Things had more than 10 years to reach the “plateau of productivity” but this year they give it five to ten years to reach this final stage of maturity. Last year, big data reigned supreme, at what Gartner calls the “peak of inflated expectations.” But now big data has moved down the “trough of disillusionment,” replaced by the Internet of Things at the top of the hype cycle. (And yes, the Apple Watch will tell time, too.Gartner released last week its latest Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies. The Apple Watch could be a product we're all wearing in 2016 and using for all our payment transactions, tying consumers to the Apple behemoth for years to come.
It's just too hard to tell right now, through all the bluster.Īs it happens with technology products, so many of them tend to be overestimated in the short run (ahem, Google Wave, the Segway, Groupon) and underestimated in the long run (did anyone hail magnetic stripes 50 years ago and expect they'd still be with us in 2014?). Following this triggering event are the other stages of the cycle: the Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, and if there is mainstream adoption, the Plateau of Productivity.īut the hyped-up coverage at this trigger stage can belie an underperforming product something that doesn't necessarily change the game, as previous Apple products have. It's the "Technology Trigger" in the tech hype cycle that industry analyst Gartner has laid out. The gadget-lovers among you probably can't get enough of it. Finally an Apple product I am not likely buying.- OM September 9, 2014 I expected iWatch to be skinnier, do less, less techie.